One Percent More a Day

[Pintofool]

Hello Everyone,

I just got my fitbit Surge last week, and I'm addicted!.  As a process engineer, operations management type, I'm consumed by numbers, and one thing I know works is to push for small incremental changes.  When we make changes at work this way we look up and are amazed how far we've come in the last year.  When we talk for 6 months about a big change we want to do, nothing happens.

So I'm going set a minimum step count for myself 1% higher each day starting at 10,000 steps.  I'll just see how far this takes me.  By my birthday - (10/18) I'll be approaching 20,000 steps in a day.  Here's my progress so far:

Feedback, encouraging words, and general heckeling to inspire that "I'll prove your wrong" feeling are appreciated.

Bill

Starting Weight: 262 lbs

[USAF-Larry]

Welcome, @Pintofool, glad to see you here!  I won't try to prove you wrong, because I don't think you are.  But, your 1% per day increase in steps becomes a moving target that becomes harder to track.  On the low end, that is very doable - 1% of 10,000 steps is only 100 steps more than the day before, and 1% of 11,000 steps is 110 steps more than the day before, and this is where it gets murky; adding the 110 steps to 11,000 gives you 11,110 steps, and 1% of that is 111.1 steps more you need the next day. I could see where counting those steps might get difficult to document.... 

So, the engineer in me says you might want to add a fixed number of steps every day to reach your goal, maybe something like 200 more steps every day since that is a small increment but adds up pretty quickly.  You have 60 days to get from 10K to 20K steps, so 10K/60 days is only 167 steps per day additional.

Best of luck in your journey!

[Pintofool]

Thanks for the thoughts Larry - I just went ahead and rounded the numbers in Excel.  Plus or minus a step isn't the concern, and I have no intention on stopping because I hit the goal on any given day, just ensure I stay ahead of it. 

I know at some point it will break - some bad day at work where I get stuck at the computer/phone solving some crisis, but I hope because there's an upward moving goal - my average count will be higher, than if I was content with a fixed goal.

Also, I REALLY REALLY REALLY hate to lose, so I'll likely stretch to hit the goals as long as I can.  I'm hoping my mental barrier (currently around 12k - 13k) starts to move up to where those feel like easy days.

Thank you so much for the thoughts @USAF-Larry

Warm Regards,
Bill

[USAF-Larry]

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@Pintofool wrote:

Also, I REALLY REALLY REALLY hate to lose, so I'll likely stretch to hit the goals as long as I can.  I'm hoping my mental barrier (currently around 12k - 13k) starts to move up to where those feel like easy days.

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They will, they will.  When I went through PT to learn to walk again after my accident/surgery, 100 steps was a barrier.  But, each day was a little better.  Now, walking 15K steps a day is a casual stroll through the country. The last couple days I have done over 20K steps and wasn't even tired at the end of the walk.  So, yeah, that mental barrier will move on....

[shipo]

The issue I see with the 1% plan is when you start getting into the higher numbers.  For most folks there is an upper threshold of day-in-and-day-out steps, and once you get beyond said threshold, doing it on a daily basis becomes onerous.  For my part, I routinely log 20,000-25,000 steps and often venture into the high 30,000 step range (I've been over 39,000 steps many times but never once crossed the 40,000 step boundary).  For those of us who work and have families or active social lives, trying to log 40,000 or more steps (plus 1% additional daily) is getting into the zone of "not doable".

[GershonSurge]

Assuming no physical constraints, this should be doable up to your physical and time limits.

To make the system complete, you could add something to turn off the motivation in order to prevent overuse injuries. I suggest setting a daily maximum 1,000 steps above the daily goals. Without this, you will be like a thermostat with no off switch for the heat.

There is no reason to jump to 10,000 if your current steps are significantly lower unless it's physically easy.

Another experiment you can try is increasing your calorie burn by only 10 calories a day. 

If you like, you can show how much of a calorie deficit it takes to lose a pound according to your Surge. I can drop a big hint of you want.

[Pintofool]

Thank you @shipo for your thoughts.  I really believe this will be a 30-90 day exercise, where I will settle in a good "push" routine.  I work long hours myself - with 3 hours of commuting, so I know about time limitations.  Just find ways to walk the shop floor, hustle through my chores on the farm when I get home, and just go walk in the hills when I can.  I found 10,000 fairly easy when I started, I'm large, but active, but I didn't want to settle there.  I'm hoping this exercise will quickly find my stretch goals for me.

Best of luck to you,

Bill

[Pintofool]

Hi @GershonSurge,

Thanks for your thoughts!  Once I cross the goal I don't feel any mental pressure to get going.  The days I'm significantly above the line is just because I did a lot of running around when I got home, or went for a nice leisurely evening walk after a very "walkative" day at work.

As for the calorie burn, I like that idea a lot, it's noted, and when I limit out on this steps idea I'll try that next.  Also, it would be good to compare my calorie burns to lose a pound to the literature 3500 calories - help me calibrate my surge numbers.  (Shouldn't fibit do this already if you're religous about entering all your food?)

Thanks!

Bill

[GershonSurge]

@Pintofool

Have you read any of Eliyahu Goldratt's books? If you have, it will make communication easier as we will have common terms.

Fitbit could possibly adjust calorie estimates based on food inputs, but the accuracy would depend on the user inputting food accurately each day. I'll give away it's good enough if you are using a 1,000 calorie deficit. You may find you lose weight more or less quickly than anticipated. It will likely be accurate within 2-300 calories a day on the deficit.

I have spreadsheets for almost everything. I find that by treating the whole project as a science project, it depersonalizes the process. If I don't meet results goals, I sometimes tweek the control variables. 

It's amazing how effective ongoing incremental change can be. 

[Pintofool]

@GershonSurge

While The Goal was mandatory for half the industry, I personally took away a lot from Critical Chain - while not Project Management Gospel anymore, I find it very useful.

I agree with spreadsheets - I need to make a database to keep track of all the spreadsheets I have laying around.

While the accuracy would depend on the person inputting their values correctly, people tend to bias (undercount) the same way, and I would guess fairly predictably.  After a few months I would think fitbit would adjust your "true" calorie burn and give you a more accurate prediction of your upcoming fat loss. 

I really need to get an Aria, because I always put on muscle right away and it messes with my weight loss numbers anyways.

More Data!

Thanks for the discussion.

Bill

[GershonSurge]

@Pintofool,

If I were doing this, I'd also plot a running total steps from the start. If you get ahead of the running total, it may indicate an overconsumption of your resources (fitness level and causing minor injuries.) If you are behind the running total, you can be motivated to set up a plan to return to it. You can also get above the curve if a busy work day is coming up.

Each day, you could post both charts in this thread.

When you get around to monitoring calorie deficit and expected weight loss, the same concept works well. All you will have to do is make a copy of a worksheet and use the same template for everything you track. 

If you want to get fancy, you can zoom on an area of the chart by changing the boundaries on the vertical and horizontal axis for a third chart. I do this for my running goals.

[Pintofool]

@GershonSurge

I do like the total steps not to exceed XXX to keep myself from doing damage ( I am feeling a little sore today).

I've been using a mile run as a metric for results - I ran one the first day (14:17) and the next week (13:00).  Just looking for results to measure other than weight.

Thanks,
Bill

[garybartlett]

@Pintofool  As a retired engineer, I gotta admit I like numbers (and graphs) too.  And as one who is recovering from multiple myeloma with numerous fractured vertebrae, I have read extensively about the recovery process and no matter where I looked, the medical experts all said the same thing: exercise; exercise; exercise.

With a Charge HR in hand and MS Excel on a Win 7 laptop, then, I set off on a goal of starting from zero and reaching 10,000 paces a day, but with no particular time limit in mind in which to achieve that goal.  I did, however, determine to add a few paces with most every walk, sometimes increasing by the distance between power poles, other times looking to the next street civic address as the next goal.  I didn't use percentage; just a few more paces.  It took me exactly one year to go from 0 to 10,000 paces per walk, using a walker to take the strain off my back.  I now do that about twice a week.

  My most exciting recent discovery is Nordic walking, a much more strenuous way of moving because of the extra upper body muscles involved in man-handling the poles but I think it reasonable that I can make it to 10,000 paces that way too, so off I go on that adventure (meanwhile keeping up the 10,000 walker-pushing routine) and following the same process of adding a few more paces with every trip.  Incremental pace increases seem easier to track and graph than percentage increases. Already, in 10 days with the poles I can notice improvement in my posture and a decrease in back pain, so I am very much looking forward to this addition to my exercise program.  At age 72, I am surprised that such simple things are exciting!

In any case, Bill, you will have no trouble reaching your goal (I predict) but I do agree with others who suggest increasing on the basis of fixed numbers of additional paces rather than using percent (unless you like the challenge of the math).

Report your progress here periodically to help motivate the rest of us.

Regards,

Gary 

[GershonSurge]

@Pintofool,

A bit of tiredness is fine. Soreness that doesn't go away by walking around during the day is getting closer to an injury that could sideline you for a few days. Pain is reason to immediately cease extra running and walking until the pain mostly goes away. Chronic injuries are easier to avoid than to cure. 

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@Pintofool wrote:

 Just looking for results causes to measure. other than weight.

Thanks,
Bill

---

Bill,

Almost every system has a single independent variable or a ratio of two variables that if set correctly ensure success in the system. It's management's job to tell labor what value to set these variables. If labor follows these directions, then management is responsible for the results.

When I set goals, I always put the final draft in terms of inputs rather than outputs. You have set a perfect input goal by drawing a chart for your step goals.It's good enough, so there is no reason to refine it at this point. Your manager should be just as critical of exceeding this input as he would be of coming up short. You can lay this one to rest and follow it for a couple months to see what happens.

In "The Goal," Eliyahu Goldratt showed that a consultant could walk into ANY assembly line and improve profits quickly by focusing on eliminating unnecessary inventory. This actually works for ANY business if the inventory can be defined. In "The Critical Chain," he showed eliminating internal buffers during the project and having a single small buffer near the completion date is best.  For now, let's focus on the idea of "single variable success predictions." (My own term I just made up.)

The one variable that will determine your weight loss is total calorie deficit since the starting date. The important caveat is eating at least what you burn at rest. The two terms for this are Resting Metabolic Rate (RMR) and Basic Metabolic Rate (BMR). Without getting too detailed, bad things can happen to people who go too far below this.

To make this happen, you will have to count calories accurately. As an engineering type, it should be fun, but if it's something you detest, there are other methods.

First, let me show you my personal results since July 8th. I only had a few more pounds to lose, and I'm trying to maintain between 170 and 172.

I made a spreadsheet with these headings:

Burned

Intake

Net

Weight

Predict Weight

I enter the bold printed items. If you don't like looking at the scale, then don't. There is no need to. 

The formulas divide the total deficit by 3500 to get the weight loss and add that to the initial weight to get the predicted weight. 

Here is the chart:

After 45 days, the actual weight is 2.5 lbs above the predicted. This is a normal variation around the prediction and nothing to worry about. 

If you are the type that believes in science more than I do, you could only track predicted weight for a month and see what happens when you look at the scale.

Gotta go cook.

[emili]

@Pintofool For what its worth, I think you have a goal, a plan and a desire to succeed. The rest- you will figure out as you go along. Much success to you and let us know how it goes..

[Pintofool]

@emili 

Thank you so much - the support is appreciated!

[Pintofool]

@garybartlett

That is a truly inspiring story - God bless you on your continued recovery.

I'll stick to the % increase - because I'm just nerdy like that.

Thank you for sharing with me.

Bill

[Pintofool]

@GershonSurge

Fitbit provides lots of data - so I'll be correlating all I can with this current effort.  

I am going to heed your warning on injuries and have one day a week where I have no expectations.  I was already starting to feel a little more sore each day, so I think having a recovery day is wise.

As for the "believe in science" - I believe the body is astronomically more complex than calories in / calories out - but I also know that doing something is likely better than staying on my previous path.

Thank you for all your insights!

Bill

[GershonSurge]

@Pintofool,

For the purposes of weight loss and weight gain, I've never seen calories out - calories in fail by any significant amount. People do say it fails if a person eats a highly restricted diet. I only express it this way as I haven't tried it, so it's second hand information.

For the purposes of health, the body is more complex. If you are interested, we can get into that later. Incremental changes will work well to get started.

[Pintofool]

Update - First Full Week

Through the advice on this thread I've decided to remove Sundays from my count both as a day of rest.  I noticed I feel less sore today (Monday) and ready to hit the week with the same enthusiasm I started last week at.  I think I will continue to run a best mile time once a week as well as continue monitoring my expected weight loss vs net calorie differences.

My calorie burn says I should be down 5 lbs and I'm down 4lbs - so tracking well,  but I also don't believe this is a sustainable rate for too long - I'd like to slow it down to 1-2 lbs per week.

So without further ado - the chart (modified to remove Sundays)

Thank you,

Bill

Current Weight - 258 lbs (-4)

Best Mile - 13:00 (-1:13)

Mood for Monday Morning - Optimistic