Question on Trend Weight and Fitbit

[sherryg]

Hi guys.  
So many of you use Trend Weight so I thought I would check it out.  I created an account and what I received once I linked, shocked me and got me thinking.

It told me that me this---

You are gaining 0.9 lbs/week of total weight.

You are burning 429 cal/day less than you eat.

You have been tracking your weight for 2 weeks.

You have 16.2 lbs to lose to reach your goal weight.

You must cut 1 429 cal/day to match your plan.

That's with my current setting of losing 2lbs a week.  I could use that but I am fine with dropping my loss rate to 1.5lbs a week or even a pound, I'd just like to see it go down and not trend upwards.

With that said, hypothetically here, if i was to follow the plan shown above, does this mean that my total calories burned on Fitbit needs to be my BMR (1,334) plus the 1,429 shown above for a total of 2,763 calories burned a day?

I am soooo confused but I will say, that Trendweight message had me go back and look at a few days of calorie burn and notice that I didnt hit the 1,429 on many days.

I hope that makes sense. Please help me get this.  Sometimes, math escapes me.

@hikerbiker it was your link to Trend Weight that sent me down this path.  

for a little background, I lost 45lbs in 2016 on WW using Smart Points and just walking for exercise.

Once they changed the plan to Freestyle, I gained back 10lbs and now, an additional 2 that are scaring me because the scale shouldnt be moving up, it should be going down since I work out daily.

I am 56, female, and in the middle of menopause (going on 5 months no cycle now).  I know that I need to get good sleep and I am trying but you know, I am up several times a night due to personal summer episodes 🙂

I am committed to losing this 12lbs now, if I can just  to get back down to 145lbs.  I know it can be done, I am just struggling with it and trying to NOT stress over it and shoot up the cortisol that I know causes weight gain.

I eat fairly well daily, mostly fruits, veggies, lean protein, egg whites, low fat cottage cheese, skim milks.  I was allowing myself a cheat day on Saturdays but I think it was contributing to my weight gain.

For exercise, I try to do some aerobics 40 min-5 days a week (HIIT in each session), and have been making sure I reach my 12k steps a day.

I feel like I am doing everything right but the Trendweight thing really made me stop and question what it was that I might be missing.

Thank you so much for your insights!

[Baltoscott]

Hi @sherryg  

A little bit about TrendWeight ...

First, it will be more accurate when it has more weigh-ins to evaluate.  And, of course, it works best when you weigh in daily.  (You may have been tracking your weight for two weeks, but if you only weighed in twice during the period, TrendWeight has to guess all the in between days in order to calculate your moving average.  The guesses will likely be wrong, so weigh in every day to give it plenty of data to work with).

The 1429 cal/day number can be read in conjunction with the "you are eating 429 cal/day less than you eat statement."  1429 cal/day - 429 cal/day = 1000 cal/day, or how much more/day you need to burn over the calories/day you metabolize from what you eat in order to lose two lbs/day. 

TrendWeight reverse engineers the gap between what you eat vs. burn by looking at your historical weight change over time -- hence the assertion that, based on your gain of 0.9lbs/week, you must be burning less -- 429 calories less/day -- than what you have ate over the past two weeks.  If that trend is based on 14 weigh-ins, it is probably pretty accurate.  If it is based on 2 or 4 or any number less than 14, it will be less accurate.  I am not sure how far back TrendWeight looks when it calculates your weekly change, but I think it is at least two weeks.  It may be more.  More recent weigh-ins are given more 'weight' in the calculation than older ones.

Finally, to your question.  Your math is sort of correct, but the fact that TrendWeight reflects that you have gained weight confuses things a bit because you first have to cut 429 calories/day (or exercise that much more) in order to stop the weight gain. Then you need to cut another 1000 cal/day in order to lose 2 lbs/week.

So, IF you eat your BMR (1334), and you exercise an additional 1000 calories every day, such that Fitbit says you are burning 2334 calories/day, you should lose, on average, two pounds/week.  But that will happen only IF ... the BMR number and the total daily burn numbers are correct (they are what an average person your weight and size would burn, but that may not be true for you), you metabolize all of the calories you eat, and your estimate of those calories is accurate. 

[sherryg]

Thank you @Baltoscott ! That explains the math for me and it is in line with what I thought.  I didnt know the methodology behind trend weight ,but you've explained it, so thanks for that as well.

I am highly frustrated by where I am at  this time and I honestly am busting my behind trying to get the needle to move south, but I wont give up, no matter how frustrated I get.

Thanks again for the explanation.

Sherry