safe weight loss

[Xakka]

I have been getting back into the shape again after gaining weight after a move. Is it safe to push for 3-4lb's weight loss a week consistently? I am a 6'5" Male currently weighing 280lbs, and an active swing dance, recently been picking up running and weight training as well.

Fitbit estimates that with a calorie deficit of 1000 each day on more active days that I should be eating around 4200 calories. This seems insanely high. Am I mistaken on this, or would it be safe to continue eating around 2500-3000 calories a day.

[Mukluk4]

Looking at your activity in your profile, some days it may be that appropriate, but on average it does not.  

I would start with this baseline (4,220 average burn from your profile) to build your diet around.  

Keep in mind that it looks like you have spikes and valleys in your activity level so you either need to account for that in your diet plan or be understanding that as a whole you are trending downward and may see some variation in weight.

[Xakka]

Guess what im looking for is how to determine a way to figure out the daily deficit on a more reactive method then setting a hard number based on my activity. I have been becoming more active, and many of the valleys in activity are days where I am hitting the pool for exercise and dont always get around to logging it... or I was sick and dont eat that much anyway. 

I am working around strengthing my foot after an injury so often take days to be in the water to keep training. Mainly I want to make sure I dont cut the calories too low. I know when I started losing weight around 2 years ago before having a fitbit at 375 lb's I was consistently dropping 5 lbs a week for a few weeks in a row. Settling in on a new number that is reasonable accepting that it will happen slow as I Drop the weight.

[emili]

you can double check your daily calorie allotment by using an online tdee calculator. Its slightly different from BMR because it takes a closer look at your average activity level. As far as is it safe- you will hear 27 different answers. the person you should be asking is you. do you feel ok at 1000 less? are you tired, lightheaded, brain muddled, forgetful, lethargic. Yes- eat more. No- you are good to go. Your body will tell you - you have to pay attention to it. You also want to make sure you are eating a really balanced diet with the calories you do have. Get all your must haves in before the nice to haves. And let me also proactively say- you will not starve yourself. so if you start getting the body in starvation stories, please research and read what that really means before believing it. Good luck in your journey and keep us posted on your successes!

[Dominique]

There must be something wrong in your parameters: even though you’re young, tall and heavy, there’s no way you would burn an average of 5200 calories per day (which what you would need in order to eat 4200 and have a 1000 deficit). Or your Fitbit overestimates your energy expenditure.

This online calculator (which uses more or less the same formula as Fitbit) puts your BMR at 2372. Even with the "high activity" setting, your TDEE would "only" be 4092. Based on the step count shown in your profile for the past 30 days, I’d estimate your activity level somewhere between "moderate" and "high".

I would do as you suggest: continue eating 2500-3000 calories for a while and see what kind of weight loss rate this results in. If weight comes down too fast, eat a little bit more.

[Xakka]

Sounds good sitting around 2500-3000 mark right now, the 5000 on several days just seems way too high. Haven't felt overly tired or anything, still managing to slowly pick up speed on my 3km runs a few times a week. 
I am going to see how the weight loss is going around the 2500-3000 mark for the next 2 weeks and see what the losses look like. Maybe I will be able to lower it a little as long as I focus on more nutritious foods to get the nutrients I need.

Thanks for the replys! 

[Xakka]

Also just to clarify average was never shown at 5000 calories per day, I was using that as an example of what it tells me on the most active days or higher. My wording may not have been clear enough. You are correct with the average burn around the 4k mark.

5k days usually involve 2-3 hours of swing dancing on top of normal daily activities.