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Fitbit in Trouble?

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‎01-19-2018 15:14

‎01-19-2018 15:14

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137573-fitbit-beyond-saving

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‎01-19-2018 20:21

‎01-19-2018 20:21

Read into  to it what you want

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Wendy | CA | Moto G6 Android

Want to discuss ways to increase your activity? Visit the Lifestyle Forum

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‎01-20-2018 03:09

In response to WendyB

‎01-20-2018 03:09

I hope Samsung buys them before they go under 😕

It sounds like maybe I'd better start liquidating my Fitbit collection 😱

I've been seeing a lot of these articles lately 😨

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‎01-20-2018 08:37

‎01-20-2018 08:37

I don't consider seekingalpha to be much of a source because they're focused on news from an investor's perspective, which means extrapolating a future from recent performance, with some speculation tossed in.

 

The latest SEC filings go through Q3, so speculation on Q4 is, well, speculation. The gist of the article seems to be that because the stock price dropped at the end of 2016 and profitability dropped during 2017 the company is doomed. At least, that's as far as I could get before the paywall screen came up.

 

Anyway, it's possible, but I'd prefer to see actual 2017 Q4 results along with 2018 Q1 before panicking. The Ionic, Flyer, and Coach are pretty significant products and the Christmas buying season may not tell the whole story. The company has ~280million in cash as of Sept, a bit more than twice the loss sustained in the nine months ending Sept 2017.

 

I'm not surprised Fitbit's revenue is in decline - makes perfect sense to me as the market gets saturated device growth will slow, and as the devices get more capable replacement rates drop, and they look for non-device revenue. So far I haven't seen any article or analysis that points to a wearable company that is bucking that trend. 

 

Most people I know who have a tracker of any kind are on their second or third. It's no longer a gadget or a gimmick, but something people have made a part of their lives. My feeling is that the market focus is going to shift away from the devices and toward making the data they collect more actionable for the user. The charts and graphs the various companies put out are interesting, but they're a long way from being really useful. Sure steps are interesting along with resting HR and all the rest. But why not show me how my health is trending, and how my decisions affect my health using data from ME and my real life, at the moment I'm making that decision?

 

This will take R & D which will mean lower profitability across the board until these companies figure out how to do this and get paid for doing it. 

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