3500 calories = 1 pound a myth?

[Dominique]

Just watched a fascinating lecture by Dr. Kevin Hall from the NIH:

The Calculus of Calories: Quantitative Obesity Research

It’s quite long (57 minutes), but very entertaining and never boring. In it, he debunks the 3500 calories = 1 pound myth and presents a better model for predicting weight loss.

At the end, amazing numbers on the total quantity of food wasted (= produced, not eaten) in the US.

[JonahV]

Sounds interesting, if it wasn't so late I would definitely watch it now!

[EdsonFitbit]

I'll watch it once I get home. @Dominique Thanks for sharing this with us. 

[Dominique]

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@JonahV wrote:

Sounds interesting, if it wasn't so late I would definitely watch it now!

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I watched one half on one day, and the other half on the next day. Do let me know what you thought of it!

The presentation focused mostly on weight loss for obese people, and on the causes of the current obesity epidemia, but I found it very useful even as someone who’s in the normal weight range. And it made me realize I’d probably be very overweight if I lived in the US!

[SebringDon]

@Dominique

Very interesting video. I expected to make serious changes in my plan after watching that, but I used the Body Weight Planner that he recommended at the NIH, based on his models, and the plan there was within about 100 calories of my current plan. So maybe he's right that 3500 calories = 1 pound is a myth, but apparently it's also "close enough for government work" within the range from obese to normal weight, which is what Fitbit's really designed to handle. As shorthand, it seems that "3500 calories = 1 pound" isn't a bad term.

[Dominique]

@SebringDon: I was thinking the 3500 calories = 1 pound rule would be accurate enough for a smallish weight loss (or gain), where metabolic adaptation can’t be that big, but that it would start to have a significative impact with a larger weight loss that spans over a longer period. Have you found your own weight loss to match pretty closely 3500 calories =  1 pound? 

[SebringDon]

@Dominique

Funny you should mention that. My first 30 pounds (over 5 months) went almost exactly to schedule, but the last 6 weeks haven't been as predictable, so either I'm not being as careful about consumption as I was, my ramped-up activity has Fitbit over-estimating my calorie burn by a bit, or some adaption is taking place.

I've been blaming it on Fitbit over-estimating my ramped-up calorie burn. I'll have to dig a little deeper.  

[Dominique]

I think the parts of Kevin Hall’s presentation that could be relevant are those that start at 31:54:

and at 44:34:

If you have all your calories in, calories out and weight data (historical), you should be able to check how well Dr. Hall’s model would have matched your actual weight loss so far, and what weight change it would predict from now on if you keep eating and exercising like you currently do.

[Marcy]

Thank-you for the link @Dominique. I liked how he explains his conclusions with scientific studies. If I understood him correctly, metabolic changes were not undermining our (American) diets as much as our lack of diet adherence. I decided to try out his BW Simulator for grins.