Hitting plateau despite increased deficits

[DraigGoch]

Hi, all.  Hoping someone can give me some insight on the plateau I've hit.  A bit of background data:

I have been using MyFitnessPal and Fitbit to track food and exercise for years, and probably got lax after starting a new job in autumn 2016.  When clothes really started not fitting around the holidays this last winter, I buckled down again, tracking food much more diligently (ok, much more honestly!) and upgraded to a FitBit HR from the original Flex I had for years.  I'm 35, 5'4", currently 144lbs (down from 146 at my annual physical in March, which was the first time in my adult life I'd gone into "overweight" BMI).  Never been pregnant, etc.  I don't drink sugary drinks/pop (at all), since that seems to be one of the first things people ask about!  I drink plain hot black tea (no sugar, no milk, no lemon), 3-4 cups most mornings, and plain water (no fizz, no flavour) through the day - probably 3-4 cups there as well, more or less.

I workout 5-6 days a week.  Isometric and isotonics 3 days a week (approximately 20 minutes per session) and cardio 5-6.  I prefer walking on my lunch break or after work, 30-60 minutes, average heartrate around 120-130, generally between 200-300 calories burned per walk (per FitBit).  If the weather is inclement, I will hit the elliptical for 20 minutes and burn around 150.

From January 4 to the end of February, I was seeing positive results.  I was doing weekly morning measurements and seeing a decrease of an average 1/4 inch weekly.  I knew I would hit a plateau eventually (and that it was likely "water" inches that were going that quickly early on).  From beginning March, I have now seen a definite 0 inches lost.  As mentioned, my weight at my annual exam in mid-March was 146, now down to 144 - I have started weighing myself daily and averaging the weight per week since I have seen no change in measurements.  Current measurements are: 

Waist: 31.5 inches

Hips: 38

Calf: 15

Thigh: 22

Bicep: 11.5

Again, that's no change on those since March 1, measured weekly from March 1 to April 14 (when I cut it to monthly since it wasn't helping to see the tape going nowhere), first thing in the morning, after a visit to the bathroom.  So it's not that "I'm losing the fat in other areas first".  I'd really like to get those first two down because I'm decidedly pear-shaped at the moment.  Goal measurements: waist 29, hips 36.  

Here's where I'm getting frustrated, with a capital F:  according to the numbers, I'm doing everything I should be to get through this plateau, but the stall continues.

During the first 8 weeks (when I was seeing results), my average daily calories-in was 1448.  During the last 10 weeks (no change other than that 2 pounds since mid-March), avg. daily cals-in = 1497.  

First 8 weeks, avg. daily cals-out: 2011

Last 10 weeks, avg. daily cals-out: 2114

First 8 weeks, avg. daily deficit: 561

Last 10 weeks, avg. daily deficit: 622

As far as I can see, the only possible reasons why I've not lost more than 2 pounds over the last 10 weeks have to be significant miscalculation of calorie intake, significant miscalculation of calorie expenditure (measured entirely by FitBit HR tracker), or underactive metabolic rate (age, decrease in thyroid activity, etc).

The only thing I can reasonably control here is calorie intake and tracking, outside of asking my doctor for a hormone/thyroid test.  I don't really think it's realistic for me to increase my workout time/intensity very much more - I've got to have some time for other life activities!

One of my biggest questions right now is about the "1200" calorie benchmark.  If I hit 1200 and my tracker tells me I've burned 2200 calories that day, do I need to ignore the part where it says I have 500 calories left in my "budget" and cut it off at 1200, no matter what?  In other words, is "500 day/3500 week deficit" doing me absolutely no good here? 

Is there a deficit I should be shooting for instead, if a 500-calorie daily deficit isn't helping (or closer to 625 going by my averages the last few weeks), because I feel like I'm flying blind here 

[Daves_Not_Here]

@DraigGoch -- welcome!  It is admirable how diligently you've tracked and know your metrics.  The frustration you are feeling is reported all too often in this forum, and people will weigh in with various conflicting opinions.

I believe you are looking at it rationally when you cite miscalculation of calorie intake, expenditure, or underactive metabolic rate as contributors to a lack of weight loss.  My guess is that your fitness is so high that you actually burn less calories than estimated by Fitbit.  Also, (and I'm in the minority on this forum), I believe that vigorous exercise confounds weight loss due to recovery, fatigue, hunger, increased stress and cortisol levels, etc.  Exercise is a "get fit" not a "lose weight"  activity. @Dominique had recently posted this video that speaks to this very problem.  Weight loss is 90% about your eating and 10% about your exercise.  

What to do?  My suggestion is to change things up.  I'd suggest focusing your attention on the eating side of the equation, and experiment with changing your calorie deficit, macro-nutrient ratios, when you eat, how often, etc.

[WavyDavey]

Hi @DraigGoch, I agree the calories in/out calculation look to be inaccurate somewhere. You can try a 750 kcal. deficit, and see the results. I've also found resistance training and HIIT to both have a very positive effect on metabolism, to where I have to eat at a caloric surplus to maintain weight. How could this be? There's probably an inaccuracy in my calculations also, but as long as it's accounted for, it can be equalized.

It's kind of a balancing act between types and levels of exertion for metabolism and appetite. I do agree with @Daves_Not_Here that it's easier to manipulate calories in than calories out.

[GershonSurge · Accepted solution]

@DraigGoch

Great job giving enough information to work with. If you still have the Flex, I suggest opening another account and coupling it to the new account. Then wear both of them at the same time and note the calories burned difference. The clip-ons tend to underestimate calories burned and those with a heart rate monitor tend to overestimate calories burned. 

I'd try walking an extra mile each day or going a bit faster during the walks you do take. You can work up to 180 minus your age for the highest you should let your average heart rate go. This will burn the maximum fat per unit of effort. It's a long story. 🙂 

It's standard procedure to test the thyroid at every physical. 

There is another simple way to do it, too. Just eat the number of calories equal to your BMR and don't worry about how much you burn. Just don't eat below your BMR or you may not get sufficient nutrients. 

[DraigGoch]

Thanks to all who responded, you're input and time are appreciated!  

@Daves_Not_Here I'm all about data/metrics!  If i can track something quantitatively, I feel much more like I can identify problems and figure out a solution or work-around.  Which is what brought me here in the first place 🙂  Interesting point that exercise can work against weight loss at some point, and I can see where you're coming from on that.  On the whole, I don't really think i'm working out *that* much (and don't make a bee-line for a burger and fries due to increased hunger after I've hit the gym) so hopefully I'm not self-sabotaging too much on that front.  Your mention of cortisol is a potential factor in my plateau, too, though, with hitting a particularly crazy season at work.  I would group that with "metabolic" issues that I might rule in a little more after some additional changes in diet/calorie intake.

@WavyDavey Geez, are you all called Dave around here?  I have told FitBit to increase my goal deficit to 750/day and I'm going to see how this goes over the next two or three weeks.  I do think that will be enlightening (heh...) regardless of the outcome.  

@GershonSurge I have seen waaaay too many weight loss posts that say something like "I can't get to my weight goal of 130, what am I doing wrong?" and nothing else.  If you're going to ask for help, come prepared!  When I use the elliptical, I'm usually seeing peak HR around 145-150, but burning less (reportedly) in a 20 minute workout than I do on a 45 minute walk.  I'm undecided if the reported difference in calorie burn is worth the potential difference in afterburn I might get from increased time in peak cardio zone.  Interestingly, I cannot tell you the last time my thyroid levels were tested.  Definitely not at my last two annual physicals, but I have been surprised at the number of things my doc has said, "That's no longer the recommended standard, we'll only do it if you ask now." But, to be honest, my doc wasn't especially concerned about me hitting 25 BMI either (she knows I work out and that increased "weight" could have been muscle), but I don't know.... 

Thanks again, all.  Will update with any progress.

[Iluvebichons]

I'm probably a little late in replying.  I found helpful information re: weight plateau on the Mayo Clinic's website.  

[DraigGoch]

@Daves_Not_Here @WavyDavey @GershonSurge @Iluvebichons

Thought I'd give a month-in update on some things:

Diet: Since my original posting, I've upped my deficit goal to 750/day.  Within that goal, I am also aiming to keep calorie intake as close as 1200 as possible, regardless of what MyFitnessPal and FitBit tell me I have "left" in my budget.  Since the beginning of January, my average weekly calorie deficits have increased steadily with every "check-point" (approximately 6-10 weeks when I sit down and tally up what all those "in-zones and under budgets" actually work out to).  I have actually even got a kitchen scale and am weighing up portions to be sure i'm not cheating more in there than i imagine.

Average weekly calorie deficits:

Jan. 4 - Feb. 27 = 4110.25

Mar. 1 - May 16 = 4481.3

May 17 - Jun. 22 = 5069 (two weeks were over 5250, a couple of weeks fell short) 

Working out - Cardio: generally 6 days/week, 30-60 minutes, most often walking (elliptical if the weather is inclement).  Strength: 15 minutes of weight training twice a week, 15 minutes of isometrics about 4 days a week (I have hit 25-second planks twice in the last week! haha).  The isometrics are probably the biggest increase in intensity I've had.  

Weight: Weighing daily (M-F because there's a decent scale at the office gym), averaged weekly.  Since May 14 (144), weight has fluctuated between 143 and 141. 

Week 1 avg. = 143.7

Week 2 avg. = 142.3

Week 3 avg. = 141.3

Week 4 avg. = no data, gym closed due to water damage 😕

Week 5 avg. = 142.6

Week 6 avg. = 142.2

Measurements: No change since March 1.

Waist = 31.5

Hips = 38

Thigh = 22

Calf = 15

Bicep = 11.5

My sense here is that whatever I'm doing isn't touching body fat at all, that I'm essentially just playing around with water levels.  

Alternatively, I've lost between 3-5 pounds of *something* since mid-March (when i was weighing in at 146).... 

To be honest, that's really not very acceptable to me, and I'm really not sure what else I can change up that might get some of this fat shifting and see the tape measure moving in the right direction.  I never thought I'd say this, but I'm getting sick of having to buy new clothes because I can't breathe in trousers that were comfortable this time last year 

[Daves_Not_Here]

Hi @DraigGoch - thanks for the callout and the detailed update.  I will confess that I'm rethinking my previous understanding and assumptions about weight loss, plateaus, and how to break stalls, etc. 

I'm meticulously reading The Obesity Code, by Jason Fung, a few pages at a time, and finding it to be the most coherent explanation I've seen as to how our bodies regulate weight.  I cannot yet paraphrase it well, but if his theory is right, then your stalling is the hitting of a stable "set point", and attempting to increase your calorie deficit may be counterproductive.  It may be better to engage in behaviors to lower your set point.

What are those behaviors?  I'm not yet confident enough to say, but I suspect it has more to do with "what" and "when" you eat versus "how much".  I'm down about 10 pounds from a 6 month plateau but plan to lose and sustain 10 more pounds lost before I come out and say "this is what worked"  (and I don't want to jinx my progress!).

Anyway, I suggest you read the book or see Fung's YouTube videos for a different way to look at your plateau.

[Dominique]

@Daves_Not_Here: maybe before @DraigGoch starts studying Fung’s theories and blaming insulin for her plateau, she should have her HbA1c checked? Chances are it’s within the normal range (my own guess).

[GershonSurge]

@DraigGoch,

At this point, it would be useful for you to describe what you are eating. I suggest you take a picture of everything you eat for a day and the next day give a summary. Don't worry about the calories in each item. That's too much trouble and not worth the effort. There is another way to resolve your lack of progress besides counting calories. Billions of people did it before calorie counting became popular in the 1920's.

[WavyDavey]

Thanks for the update @DraigGoch. Sounds frustrating.

My take is your metabolism is resisting, and needs a kick in the pants.

Two thoughts along those lines:

One). You're doing a lot of cardio, but walking isn't likely putting you in the upper/peak heart rate zone. I would take two of those walking sessions and convert them into walk/jog intervals, like the popular C25K program. Or search "elliptical HIIT". This will give your heart more of a workout and increase your calories burned from your cardio exercise..

Two) You need more strength training if you want to boost your metabolism, Try adding time until you're doing 45 minutes or an hour, twice weekly. full-body workouts. This will help raise your BMR.

It seems like you're in a prime position to up in the intensity of your exercise and reap the benefit of extra calories to play with as well a resulting metabolic effect. 

Thanks for taking the time to post. The way you are logging everything in detail will really help point you to success. Best of luck.

[Daves_Not_Here]

@Dominique wrote:

@Daves_Not_Here: maybe before @DraigGoch starts studying Fung’s theories and blaming insulin for her plateau, she should have her HbA1c checked? Chances are it’s within the normal range (my own guess).

My knee-jerk response is that you don't need to have a blood-test before availing yourself of potentially helpful information.  Beyond that, Fung's ideas go beyond the specific realm of reversing diabetes and into the general realm of reversing obesity.

In my case, I'm no longer pre-diabetic, but I was still in a quandary:  you know my story -- I went from 240 to 185 in about 6 months, started stalling and decided to take a break for the holidays and ski season.  Then April comes, I figure time to lose 20 more, I know how to do this, I'll eat 1,500 calories a day which should be a 1,000+ calorie deficit per day, 2 pounds a week, I got this.  At which point, my weight creeps up from 185 to 190 in 4 weeks.  WTF ?!?!?  It's not like I don't know how to measure and eat 1,500 calories per day -- I have a digital scale, I eat whole foods that are easily measured, I'm a Nazi about logging everything, and I've already proven I can do this.  A pound a week gained means my TDEE was about 1,000 calories (vs Fitbit's estimate of 2,700 calories), and I lightly exercise 7 days a week.  Makes no sense.   Even if I blame it on my having lost the initial weight too quickly, what do I do now?  Am I supposed to now eat only 500 calories per day to lose a pound a week?  Spend MORE time exercising?  Decode the perfect blend of hours of cardio, resistance, HIIT, and RGMATNAE (Repeatedly Grabbing My **ahem** To No Apparent Effect)?

I don't think so.  This Calories In / Calories Out business ain't working for me any more and I'll be Goddammed if I spend more than 4 weeks smashing my head against an approach that my own eyeballs show me is not working.  At least Fung has a working theory as to what may be going on and what to do about it.  I'm executing on his recommendations, and initial results are encouraging - I'm down 9 in spite of having increased my calorie consumption.  Time will tell if I can sustain it.   

[Baltoscott]

@DraigGoch -- I'm a little surprised you are not seeing better results given the amount of exercise you are doing.  I am sure it is frustrating. 

It may be that you have simply adapted to a low calorie diet, and you metabolism has slowed.  1200 kcal/day is not much, and is definitely on the low side for someone your size.  And it is too low to allow you to cut any more. 

I am sure your calorie counting is accurate, but I will throw out there that you should focus on whole vs. processed foods and as a change up you might try eating a bit more, say 2000 kcal/day for a month or two.  That may sound crazy, but your body is adaptive, and by upping the calories, and maybe by changing to whole foods if you don't do that already, you may  find that weight doesn't go up much.  After your body adapts to a month or so of 2000 cal/day, you can cut to 1500 and will likely lose weight.

This is my latest go to video on weight loss plateaus.   

[Al_fa]

@DraigGoch I feel your frustration entirely, I've been there and have managed to escape a body stall (little or no feces, lack of motivation, low in energies, skin dryness, very low to null sex drive and so on) and it's not nice.

I have been tracking my own calories, macros and activity for 308 days now and feel very confident in providing the following advice:

• Find your BMR and your TDEE through trial and error every few months: this value will change in time as your body changes so every few months recalibrate yourself and find the values of caloric intake that keep your body at the same weight (in this case it seems you have found them!). Once you find the new values, stick to them and always use body measurements and weight to record the evolution.
• If you don't change anything your body will eventually reach an equilibrium and won't move out of it: this is the most important concept to understand, no matter what calculations you are doing (I know because it has happened to me) if you see no change at all for >2 weeks it means it has adapted and won't move from there unless you change its external simuli (type of workouts and food intake). This change can be a period of maintenance and/or a period of lean bulking which is mandatory to increase muscle mass.
• To increase metabolism you need to build muscle (and you do so by increasing your reps/loads): if you don't do this you'll never change your body composition and the ability of the body to use more energies (burn more fat when there is any left!).
• Don't overdo it with cardio: if you maintain a steady cardio regime (5-6 days a week, always same routine) without increments in the difficulty, the intensity, the performances and or the time your body will adapt and stop changing.

To summarize:

1. To change your body change your stimuli.
2. Alternate bulking phases/muscle growth with maintenance and dieting/toning phases to avoid stalling.
3. Increase weights/increase reps progressively and constantly (once every two weeks if you train 3-4 times a week) to force body to build new muscles.

[Mukluk4]

---

@DraigGoch wrote:

Working out - Cardio: generally 6 days/week, 30-60 minutes, most often walking (elliptical if the weather is inclement).  Strength: 15 minutes of weight training twice a week, 15 minutes of isometrics about 4 days a week (I have hit 25-second planks twice in the last week! haha).  The isometrics are probably the biggest increase in intensity I've had.  

---

With your goal being measurements over weight (good for you!)

1. Cardio - increase the intensity.  Congrats you can walk for 60 minutes, try running for 30 3x a week.  Increase duration as you get better but don't increase the # of times a week.  Walks you can maintain as often as you like as they in essence don't count.

2. Keep the isometrics.

3.  Not sure what value you get from only 15 minutes of strength training a week.  What exercises are you incorporating here?  I would increase this workload.  If you are unsure work with a trainer for a session or 2 to provide direction.

You should see changes in your measurements (not necessarily weight).  Since you are going for a more aesthetic look the calorie deficit may be fine.  But if you are looking for better definition and decrease in fat, I would suggest eating more in line with 10% of your total daily caloric burn and you can skip the cutting/bulking phases to maintain a more consistent lifestyle.

[Mukluk4]

I forgot to preface, that this works for ME (not great for everyone).  I was able to drop 6 inches off my waist, dropped 2 shirt sizes (depending on the style and brand) with no real measurable impact to my weight and relatively small changes to my diet.

[DraigGoch]

Just checking in with some updates, more stats, etc.  I have to say that this has been an interesting process and is the most detailed tracking I've ever kept of my own health.  

Since my last update, I've managed to get the scales reporting consistent weekly average weight under 140lbs - that's a definite win for me.  

From mid-June, average weekly calorie deficit went from 5069 to 5790, so that's likely something to do with it.  

The only thing that bothers me about that is that it would appear to take an average daily deficit of 870 calories over 6 weeks for me to drop 3.8 pounds (from 142.6 to 138.8).  Seems I'm essentially putting in double the effort for half the result.  Maybe that's just age for you.    Still, at least it's something.

However... it was mid-April when i switched from taking weekly measurements because inch-loss had stalled.  At that time, I had measurements as follows:

Waist: 31.5

Hips: 37.5

Thigh: 22

Calf: 15

Bicep: 11.5

Last week, those numbers looked thusly:

Waist: 31.25 (-.25)

Hips: 37.75 (+.25)

Thigh: 21.5 (-.5)

Calf: 15 ( - )

Bicep: 11.25 (-.25)

Those have been exactly consistent since the beginning of July when I started measuring again every couple weeks.  I measure first thing in the morning (after a visit to the loo).  I did check measurements a few times during the day one Saturday, just to see how much fluctuation there is through the course of a day.  There's quite a bit.  From morning (8am) waist measurement at 31.25, to around 5pm that day up to 33.5, before decreasing to 32 again by around 8pm.  

Still keeping diet at as close to 1200/cals daily as possible, primarily consistent of stuff like: a 150g pot of greek yoghurt, 250-calorie hummus salad wrap, garden salad with packet of tuna and 1 or 2 tablespoons dressing - no cheese, croutons, nuts, etc.  Drink straight black tea, no milk, no sweetner.

One thing that may be a factor, especially during July, is stress.  It's a busy time of year in my office and while I don't get flustered by the work so much, others definitely bring some negativity to the process.

I think during the remainder of August, I'm going to focus on switching up the cardio with some HIIT stuff a little more and seeing if i can increase weight on the isotonics at all.  Not sure what else I could actually tinker with on my own (without testing for some underlying issue).  I think if that doesn't show any results by around Labor Day, I'll give a little more credence to the cardio/cortisol theory and see what occurs.  If nothing else, I've got a holiday coming up in October and usually lose around 5 pounds from walking around all day and having to remind myself to actually stop for food a few times.

[bikerhiker]

@DraigGoch

My question to you is -- what is a healthy weight that you are happy with and why you need to achieve with that weight goal?

The reason I asked this is because, you are doing all this exercises and tracking, but I do not see a specific goal you are conditioning your body to be good at.  Our human body is very good at adaptation, so therefore any new stimuli we put it through, our body will adapt and become efficient in performing the task for a given calorie expenditure.  Because energy expenditure is about how much energy we use to output for any given task.  That is, how much oxygen we consume in order to perform a given exercise routine.

For example, if a person starts swimming for 30mins and struggles to complete 40 lengths and expended 333 calories for instance.  When that same person continues to swim for 30mins for a month or so, eventually the body adapts and it becomes easier to swim those same lengths.  Then when that same person could complete 40 lengths, while expending the same 333 calories, the adaptation will end.  Sometimes, if you improve your swimming techniques, the same 40lengths will allow you to burn less calories.  Your Fitbit HR did not overestimate your calories output.  It simply does know that you had improved your efficiency.  So now, in order to increase calorie consumption, you need to increase your exercise workload.  The swimmer now has to increase the power output to get more forward momentum or swim longer distances.  A runner or a cyclist has to train for short fast intervals to raise the fitness level and let the body to continue to adapt or ride for longer distances.  But there will always be a finite point for any individual that you can only push your body so much and you can only take so much pain and suffering.  And it is pain and suffering in order to challenge your body so it doesn't adapt too easily on your exercise goal.

So it is important to understand what is your purpose to loose more weight.  Is this more for aesthetic look for perhaps you are training for some exercise goal that you need to achieve?  Weight plateaus basically mean that the body is now ready to be trained for a specific task.

Just to give you an idea of what I had to go through achieving the 142lbs race weight in the past, I did ultramarathons (that's more than 26 miles), ultra-cycling and long distance swimming.  When you want to go below the plateau, you need to push yourself MUCH HARDER to loose 1lb.  It's no longer an easy peasy walk in a park like you had experienced in the past.  This is the same with any athlete as they hit a performance plateau and that is, for every minute of PB (Personal Best) they want to achieve, they need to put in more work.  More so before they hit the plateau.

I had to stop this insanity when my doctor basically told me this.  Doing all this will eventually end me up on a wheel chair with hip problems, knee problems as well as other problems.  I was on the border line of getting arthiritis.  So I took my doctor's advice and basically stopped the insanity.  My weight shot back up to 160lbs and stood there for many years until this year, I took the initiative to lower it down to 150lbs.  My goal is 145 lbs, but I'm already seeing the plateau myself and no, I'm not going to go there doing marathons just to loose a measly few pounds.  Whether I get there or not is no longer my concern.  It was fun earning those medals and at one point got sponsored by New Balance.  

To me; as long as I achieve a healthy weight, I'm happy.     

[DraigGoch]

@bikerhiker

Some of that is addressed in my earlier posts, but basically, I'm less interested in the "weight" than the inches.  I started to notice things fitting a bit tighter maybe last autumn and by winter/New Year it was to the point that I couldn't wear things I'd worn several months before.  I'm still not to the point of being able to wear most of those things.  So, for me, it's not trying to get back into jeans from a decade ago, but really just last year.  And the problem spot is just about isolated to that bit of fat directly under my navel.  Not trying to "make weight" for anything, no, just getting tired of having to buy new clothes when I've got perfectly good things in my closet.  But I, too, have no intention of incurring hip/knee problems to get two inches off my stomach.  

[oh_suzanney]

Hi! I totally get your frustration. Plateaus are the pits. 

I see a lot about your workout regime, but what about rest? The simple fact is that maintaining a caloric deficit is a strain and stress on your body. You may do well (in my non-medical opinion, just from experience) to take some time to rest and refeed. Let your body relax for a bit, let those stress hormones chill out.

Here's why I say that - I work out 5-6 days a week, cardio and strength training. I lost a lot of weight over the course of a year and then smacked into a plateau like I had run into a brick wall. So I just took a week where I didn't go to the gym (I mean, I went for walks and stuff but nothing too strenuous) and ate sensibly, but didn't count calories. I didn't put on but maybe .5lb over the course of the week-  mostly in water, but once I was rested and went back to the gym? BOOM, I broke through that brick wall and started leaning out again.

So now I've worked "rest weeks" into my program every few months. I figure if I work out hard for 11 weeks in a row, I deserve to take the 12th week off. 

Just a thought. It's worked for me in the past. Good luck!