How long do you wait out a stall before changing things up?

[JenniferinFL]

Last month I had a bit of a stall, but, then suddenly lost 8 lbs in the span of a single week and totally made up for my stall. Well, now it's been another month of hovering within 2 lbs of the same weight and the sudden weight loss hasn't happened yet. I'm very good with my logging. I only had two meals in the last month that I couldn't get accurate calorie counts on, but, I feel I likely overestimated them heavily when I logged them. One meal was a small size lasagna at a local Italian place that I estimated at 2500 calories. Would have had to be made of nothing but fat to actually be that high, so, should be an overestimate. The same thing with a steak dinner I had, logged it all at double the quantity I actually ate, so, again, should be good.

My only weak spot is that occasionally I'm lazy about using a tablespoon for my half n half. I've tightened that up again in the last week. I use around 4 tablespoons in a cup of coffee, but, I suppose there's a possibility that I've used a couple more tablespoons of half n half per day than I logged. Not in the last week though, back to measuring everything.

So, other than two meals which should have been overestimates and a couple tablespoons of half n half possibly extra per day, everything else should be dead on. I even weigh fruits and vegetables.

I should have had a 40,659 calorie deficit in the past 30 days, enough to lose 11.6 lbs. I've been at this 17 weeks now and the first 13 weeks the fitbit estimates and my logging were dead on and I lost exactly what I should have lost, even though there was a bit of a delay and then sudden weight loss that caught me up. I can't imagine I'm going to suddenly drop 11 lbs and catch up this time.

Now, I did briefly cross over that 10% of bodyweight loss line which I know can trigger a bit of a slowdown in metabolism.

I'm not in a hurry to lose the weight. I don't really care if it takes a couple years to take off. What I don't want to do is what I did last time, hit the end with a metabolism so destroyed that I have to eat 800 calories to maintain. My question is, has anyone else here just waited it out and kept eating at a 1000 calorie deficit according to fitbit and started losing weight again? I'm eating around 2200 calories per day, I'm 5' 6", 35 years old and 221 lbs. I always get at least 10,000 steps with the exception of a couple days out of the last 119 days since I got my fitbit.  I averaged 2300 calories the month before when I lost weight right on target and 2245 calories per day the month of May when I also lost right on target.

I'm thinking I should just stay to a more consistent 2100 calories and wait it out. But, willing to hear suggestions.

[almost_where]

Jennifer-

When I go to this site I calculate the following. Mind you I entered in Lightly Active but Im never too sure what to enter for that.

You need 2,357 Calories/day to maintain your weight.	2,357
You need 1,857 Calories/day to lose 1 lb per week.	1,857
You need 1,357 Calories/day to lose 2 lb per week.	1,357
You need 2,857 Calories/day to gain 1 lb per week.	2,857
You need 3,357 Calories/day to gain 2 lb per week.

http://www.calculator.net/calorie-calculator.html?ctype=standard&cage=35&csex=f&cheightfeet=5&cheigh...

[Baltoscott]

@JenniferinFL

Your post inspired me to look at my numbers.  My weight loss has been pretty steady week over week since I started losing in January, so my experience is a little different than yours; but even so, I am convinced from my tracking that fitbit significantly overestimates my calorie burn or I consistently underestimate what I eat.  

Here's my TrendWeight Sunday weigh-in numbers over the past 8 weeks.  Followed by actual loss.  Then I've listed my average daily caloric deficit (based on logged food and fitbit's estimated burn rate) for each week along with the weight loss fitbit predicted based on over the same timeframe

          Date            Weight        Actual Loss    Fitbit daily cal def.  Fitbit predicted weight loss for week

• Sun, 6.11:   170.4 lbs
• Sun, 6.18:   168.8 lbs       1.6 lbs              1462                      2.9 lbs
• Sun, 6.25:   168.0 lbs        0.8 lbs             1762                      3.5 lbs
• Sun, 7.2:     167.1 lbs        0.9 lbs             1181                      2.4 lbs
• Sun, 7.9:     166.6 lbs        0.5 lbs             1097                      2.2 lbs
• Sun, 7.16:   165.3 lbs        1.3 lbs             1068                      2.1 lbs
• Sun, 7.23:   163.8 lbs        1.5 lbs             1551                      3.1 lbs
• Sun, 7.30:   162.5 lbs        1.3 lbs              989                       2 lbs

So, even without the hormonal issues that would affect your weight over the month, my recorded caloric deficits have greatly over-predicted my actual weight loss.  For three of the weeks above I was operating at a supposed 1500 daily caloric deficit over the week which should have translated into 3 lbs of fat loss.  For two of two of those weeks I lost weight at half the expected rate, and the other I lost weight at 1/3 the expected weight.  After 200+ straight days of logging, and eating many many of the same meals over that time frame, I think my logging is reasonably good.  I just can't rely on fitbit's projected deficits.  

Given what happened to you last month, you may get another big drop in a week, but I think you just need to increase the daily deficit.  I would target the food side and try to drop to1800-1900 calories for the next three or four weeks and see how it goes.

[JenniferinFL]

Right now I'm averaging around a 1355 calorie daily deficit for the month according to Fitbit to lose nothing... lol  HOWEVER, last month I had a sudden dramatic loss, so, kinda still stalling in hopes that it happens again. Don't want to tank my metabolism on the way down.  

Eating at 1800 calories would be between a 1500-2100 calorie daily deficit according to Fitbit. What is interesting to me is that you seem to lose best at around a 1000 calorie deficit according to Fitbit. That was my experience also. Well, until this past month. 

I'm going to stall a couple more weeks I think and see if it starts moving again. 

[emili]

I find that this article http://www.aworkoutroutine.com/why-am-i-gaining-weight/ is helpful in answering some of your questions. I know you aren't gaining, but it could trigger some ideas for you about what may be causing your stall. I can tell you, unless its "the time", sodium or medication... the #1 reason is not counting properly. In and out. you are more than likely eating to maintenance without realizing...

[Baltoscott]

I like your take it slow approach to making changes.  A lot different than the drastic reactions many people seem take in responding to a stall of a few days or weeks.  And while it is hard to ignore the numbers that fitbit calculates when they are so big, I think that a one month stall is pretty good evidence that you are not really in a deficit.  

Of course, you do have that big loss last month after nothing for a while, so a few more weeks the same practices may help you learn more about your body.  Hopefully your back is better and you are getting back to some of your strength exercises.  

[JenniferinFL]

I'm still out of luck on my back. I herniated two discs, C5-C6 and C6-C7. I've got stenosis between C6-C7. My doctor thought what I had was peripheral nerve damage, but, it's actually from the pressure on my spinal cord according to the MRI. Haven't had feeling in a couple of the fingers on my left hand since the whole thing happened. Starting to think I'm just not going to have feeling in them anymore. I'm guessing it's going to be awhile before I can do pushups or situps again since both of those put pressure on that area. I quit the pain meds and muscle relaxers as I think I prefer the pain to the side effects. LOL

Hit a new low weight this morning, not exactly drastic, but almost 2 lbs below my last low, will be curious to see what the week will bring. My back is the other reason for my slow approach. I probably do have some inflammation which can be masking weight loss. Additionally, I assume the body probably needs a bit more fuel to recover. My heart rate has been elevated during the day since the whole thing happened, probably partly because of efforts my body is making to recover and partly the mild stress of dealing with pain. I was burning around 3300-3600 calories per day and now Fitbit has me more like 3900 calories which I'm sure is from the elevated heart rate. That's why I've been eating closer to a 1400 calorie deficit instead of a 1000 calorie one as I assume the elevated heart rate isn't actually burning that many more calories. 

Back when I was 17 or so and lost all the weight the first time, I really screwed up my metabolism. Towards the end I was eating 2 nonfat yogurts and a can of chicken noodle soup per day (300 calories) to lose weight and around 800 calories to maintain at 143 lbs. I never, ever want to do that again. Ever. 

[Daves_Not_Here]

I just read an article that described how a metabolic slow-down persists over time.  A study was based on following Biggest Loser contestants after 6 years found BMR was lowered even after regaining weight.  http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/oby.21538/full   Discouraging but illuminating

Moral of the story is to plan to work to increase metabolism and permanently consume fewer calories by mindfully controlling appetite.  Here's an article that references the study and offers recommendations on how to increase metabolism.       https://draxe.com/basal-metabolic-rate/

[Baltoscott]

Interesting article @Daves_Not_Here.  You would expect RMR to drop as you lose weight, but that it stayed at the lower rate 6 years later and after the contestants regained some of the lost weight (which should have increased RMR) certainly is depressing. That probably accounts for why many people find that fitbit (and other online calculators) overestimate calorie burn.  People who have lost significant weight in the past simply burn fewer calories at rest than people of the same weight who have never lost significant weight before.  Advice to increase RMR is usually focused on weight training and HIIT but the Biggest Loser contestants are very well versed in that and their RMR turned out to be very sticky anyway.  

[JenniferinFL]

@Daves_Not_Here

I've seen that article before and it's definitely something I'm a bit concerned about. 

@Baltoscott

With the Biggest Loser contestants, most of them are expected to eat between 1000-1200 calories per day while burning at least 6000 calories per day; a deficit of 4800-5000 calories daily. It really makes sense to me that it would do permanent damage to attempt something like that. I experienced something similar when I lost the weight the first time around. I lost it drastically and was really disappointed at the end of it all; I'm sorry, 800 calories per day to maintain at 143 lbs (still chunky by modern standards) just wasn't a life worth living. Probably a big part of why I'm downright reluctant to reduce my calories too quickly.. lol

[Baltoscott]

@JenniferinFL -- I absolutely agree.  If you eat 800/cal day (or 1000 - 1200) to lose weight, you will probably have to keep eating at that level for the rest of your life to keep the weight off.  It is hard to imagine eating that level long term, though some people seem to do it.  

I dropped to about 1500-1600 cal/day for most of January (my calculated BMR at the time was about 1750).  I was at around 1800/day for most of February, and have been between 2000 and 2300 (average) since then.  A normal Mon-Thur for me when I was 190-200 lbs over most of 2016 was a bit more than I eat now at 163 lbs; about 2000-2500.  Weekends were much less structured, however.  More empty calories from drinking, pizza, bar food, grazing at parties, etc.  When I look at some of my (sporadic) MFP entries for Friday through Sunday eating last year they might run 3500 cal/day; but most of those were estimates that I am sure would have been a lot higher if logged and measured it as I ate it.  Part of my cognitive dissonance preventing me from losing weight in the the past was that I just wasn't accepting the fact I consumed a lot more calories in the second half of a week than I did in the first half.  

[Daves_Not_Here]

So here's the thought/question I have:  putting aside the tendency to gain weight, are there any other downsides to having a lower RMR?  Does it make you sluggish or depressed?  Unable to maintain strength and vigor?

Assuming my appetite was correspondingly diminished, wouldn't a lower RMR be a good thing?  It sure would cut down on the food bill.  I'm probably missing something obvious.